Category: Football Reflective

Less Means More


Before I start, let me make it clear: this article isn’t trying to take any shine off what has been a great season for Liverpool FC. I am only writing it due to an online debate turning, what I see as a fairly simple matter, into a divisive subject. I claimed – no, wait, I pointed it out because it’s factual – that playing less games has helped Liverpool in their title challenge this year. Suddenly people are making stats out of isolated moments and missing the point entirely. So let me explain.

First off, I’ll reiterate, this is a good Liverpool side, and their challenge is no fluke. I’m not saying fringe teams lacking the extra European commitment will break the top four every year. Usually the established teams have the extra funds from playing Champions League football so they can fortify their squads accordingly, thus, keeping a stronghold at the top. But Liverpool has been an emerging force aided by the opening up of spaces above them. When was the last time the reigning champions fell so far away from a title race? That was all the way back when Blackburn defended their crown in the 95/96 season, they finished seventh. Normally the top four alone is a tough nut to crack. Let’s not forget though, that Liverpool are the third highest spenders in Premier League history so they should be there-or-thereabouts every year.

In an earlier blog I mentioned – as it’s been pointed out to try and unravel my own argument – a Chelsea win over PSG would give them a boost in the title run. I stand by that claim, winning is habit forming. To use it against me is an example of people using singular instances to dismiss the whole. At this stage of the season teams are fragile psychologically, one defeat can destroy a run. Indeed, Manuel Pellegrini claimed the Sunderland draw at home was down to the players still thinking about the Liverpool loss. I’m sure if City had turned over Liverpool at Anfield, Sunderland would have faced a side that didn’t feel the fatigue so much, and would have been out for more blood. So yes, in the case of winning helping, either in Europe or a few days earlier in the Premier League, it provides a mental boost. However, over the course of a long season it gets harder to maintain those runs if the squad has played extra matches along the way.

I was also asked to provide evidence showing that when teams playing more games have suffered an impact on their season, and why has a team never challenged for the title before when free of European commitment. That’s pretty simple to answer. Spurs were looking strong 09/10 but failed to make an impact the following year when they were juggling Champions League football. When Liverpool last won the Champions League they were unable to finish in the top four. And pretty much every small squad that gets Europa League football struggles in the following campaign. This year we’ve seen Arsenal start strong, hold top spot for longer than anyone expected, but still fall away when injuries and extra games caught up with them.

To put it in a crude way, if playing extra games had no effect, then a team facing seven matches a week would be at no disadvantage over a team in the title race facing just one. Of course they would. Liverpool have benefitted from having less miles on the clock. If they don’t add significant numbers to the squad over the summer they won’t be challenging for the league next May after playing the extra European games. José Mourinho has even sought permission this week to field a weaker side on Sunday because he’s prioritised the Champions League over the Liverpool clash. There we have explicit proof that playing no games in Europe makes the league easier. It’s a shame that such an exciting, close season, is undermined at the final showdown by José’s stance but it could be a mind-game. Considering how ineffective he’s been with those all season it’d be a long overdue one if it proves to be successful at Anfield.

None of this is designed to undermine Liverpool’s efforts, they have been worthy contenders this year, but there seems to be such a sensitivity toward them at the moment that you can’t even point out valid observations. Every media outlet is in love with them and plastic football fans have been transported back to the Eighties. To say less games hasn’t helped is the same as disputing how great Suarez has been this year. Facts are facts. I look forward to watching them adapt next season with the extra games coming their way.

Four Horses, Final Furlong

Four Horses, Final Furlong

The Premier League has seen an open and exciting title race this season. Made all the better by the absence of Manchester United. That’s not just a dislike for the Red Devils speaking, but with them out of the picture it’s opened up another slot at the top. That gap has been filled emphatically by Liverpool, the rulers of old. This weekend sees the two North West teams involved in the hunt for the title face North London opposition, both of whom appear to have a salvage operation underway.

It has been refreshing to see Liverpool back on the prowl for league honours again. The neutral in me recalls a childhood watching them rule over England in dominant fashion. Back then my City were also rans. I didn’t love them any less but people weren’t queuing up to jump on that particular bandwagon. Elvis, Led Zeppelin and Black Sabbath were my favourite bands but they weren’t on Top of the Pops so, with much regret in hindsight, I donned a Bros t-shirt and accepted popular culture. Children are fickle. That young side of me did admire the Liverpool teams of old. The football Top of the Pops – Match of the Day – would play goals from the Red Men like hits from the charts. They were hard not to notice. That same neutral head would find some comfort in Liverpool winning this year, if it’s not to be City, because it’d mean Steven Gerrard getting a Premier League medal. He’s been a world class player for England (about the only one of his generation) and loyal to his club.

This season Liverpool are being noticed once again. And with good reason. Manchester City started the season in explosive fashion. After a few shaky weeks when playing away they started to overturn teams at will. It seemed conceivable they’d score at least four every week, and if you scored four they might score six. But at the business end of the season it’s the red half of Merseyside that has come on strong. After an anxious finish to Sunderland they face a Spurs side spluttering through uncertainty. A win here will more than likely end Tottenham’s hope for a top four finish – Everton are looking a better bet right now – and could spell the end of Tim Sherwood’s reign. I’m not suggesting he’d be sacked now, but the war kitty won’t be his by the time pre-season comes around.

It’s amusing Brendan Rodgers mentioned the pressure on Spurs after spending heavily when in fact Liverpool have a higher net loss than Tottenham in regard to transfer fees, not just this season, but around £70M since 2010. It appears the Northern Irishman learnt how to play mind games – by talking tripe – from his former mentor Mourinho, who has spent the year doing a good impression of the village idiot. Make no mistake: There is an immense pressure on Liverpool now. History weighs heavy with expectation. So far they are coping. If they defeat Spurs, Chelsea and Manchester City at home they’ll stand an excellent chance of bringing the first Premier League title to Anfield.

Attempting to prevent a Merseyside title win are the two sides that meet Saturday tea time: Arsenal and Manchester City. The Gunners are now the outsiders for the crown. I admire the way Wenger has maintained top four finishes on a tight budget while they paid for the new stadium but they continue to fall short. All his trophies came during the first five hundred games of his tenure. How many more hundreds will he get before the fans demand a different approach? He claims the race is still on – and with his side only six points from Chelsea he has every right – but he’ll have one eye over his shoulder now. It’s almost inconceivable that in a season where they were title race pace setters they could finish in a Europa League spot.

They’d have good company there as the reigning champions, Manchester United, look to the high ground, baffled. The most exciting part of their weekend will be a plane flying over The Theatre of Dreams trailing a banner that will read: The Wrong One – Moyes Out, highlighting just how bad the nightmare has become.

Pellegrini’s men have maths on their side, as every rival manager is happy to point out, but the games in hand are a buffer for mistakes more than certainty for points. It’s likely all the teams in the chase will drop silly points in the remaining games, City just have a way to lessen the impact if they do. Taking the three points at Old Trafford in such an easy fashion will give them a welcome boost, a repeat at Arsenal will set them up nicely. You’d fancy them in home games to Southampton and Sunderland in the coming weeks but they mustn’t overlook anyone now. The early season dazzle has dimmed a little but a new steelier centre is evident. This City team has the backbone to grind out a title.

As for Chelsea: well, I won’t say too much because their manager does that for them. But don’t be fooled by his claims the extra games in Europe will play a factor. Winning becomes habit forming and boosts confidence. A good showing against a tricky PSG side will push them on, not drain them. They currently sit top of the pile and must wear a favourites tag without trying to pretend otherwise.

Wherever this year’s trophy goes it will be a season we can look back on with fond memories, a four horse race to the end. That’s four horses, no little dogs. I’m not sure where the dogs are, I’ll ask a United fan, they seem to have gone there.

How to Make The FA Cup Great Again

How to Make The FA Cup Great Again

Paul Lambert claimed this week that if asked, and they answered honestly, most managers would rather like to do away with The FA Cup. What a grim view of the oldest domestic cup competition in the world. The greatest domestic cup, in fact. I understand the sentiment he was trying to make but he is wrong.

As I have discussed in blogs here, and extensively in Financial Fair Prejudice, football today is a business. Lambert was highlighting how Premier League survival is more important than a good cup run, or even cup success, it seems. The implication that he’d trade places in The FA Cup for three points is disrespectful to the great competition. Whilst I understand the money on offer by competing in the Premier League overshadows the domestic cup competition in the modern game, I fail to believe proper fans want mid-table mediocrity for their entire existence over an FA Cup being added to an otherwise sparse history with regard to successes.

Of course the chairmen will take mid-table – hell, even a relegation battle every year – as long as the Premier League money keeps rolling in. Surely it’s better to go down, survive on the parachute payments, then return and be able to say you’d won the domestic big one. If Wigan do return to the Premier League in the next few years they’ll be no worse off than they were previous but their history is richer. The taste of one glorious day at Wembley makes an inevitable relegation easier to bear. And from disappointment tinged with success great things can grow. What Lambert suggests is we should all be happy with a bleak existence.

For those – like the Villa manager – that will never agree to this, that dream of one day flirting with a six place finish so they can qualify for the Europa League, which they can do if they win The FA Cup, I can offer one alternative. Wouldn’t it be great if The FA Cup winners gained entry to the Champions League? Suddenly the dismissive comments made about competing in The FA Cup disappear. Suddenly it’s one lotto every chairman in the land wants to buy a ticket for.

Thusly the problem emerges: UEFA would never want to allow the risk of a Wigan entering the top European competition whilst potentially battling in the Championship. I see the conundrum but it is a shame. Ignoring the fact the Champions League itself turns into a knockout tournament, so is a little lottery when all said and done, the fear a team too weak to qualify would prove unfounded. The prize of Champions League qualification would mean the top sides would try even harder to win it. To the point any team – even one from outside the established top six in the Premier League – would have to be deemed worthy as they’d need to defeat a usual Champions League opponent at some point. An opponent firing on all cylinders, focused on the ultimate prize.

If Champions League qualification was attached to The FA Cup imagine how electric the Wembley final would become once again. For children of my generation cup final day was the highlight of the year. The Superbowl of Soccer, if you will. By making victory equate to what only the top three teams in England gained after a long thirty-eight game season it’d have fans around the globe on the edge of their seats.

I mention the top three because clearly that qualification spot would be grabbed from the fourth placed team. This year’s Premier League has been the most open and engaging for a long time, imagine how much more fascinating it would be with less league qualification spots and the cup wildcard thrown in. And how’s this for a kicker – if a team outside the top three happened to win the Champions League that year it’d only be the top two and The FA Cup victors that would qualify alongside them. Those chairman in the usual top six would be the most reluctant to slim their league chances further. They’d be the minority. The majority would crave FA Cup football. At the moment everyone is lukewarm to The FA Cup and a minority placed in Premier League relegation fights seem to actively dislike it.

Let’s do what’s good for the many – not the few. The many clubs that would love a cup competition with such a rich prize, not to mention history. And the many, many fans. It’s always the fans that should matter first. Not chairmen blinded by money, or managers lacking imagination and desire.