Tag: Chelsea

Less Means More


Before I start, let me make it clear: this article isn’t trying to take any shine off what has been a great season for Liverpool FC. I am only writing it due to an online debate turning, what I see as a fairly simple matter, into a divisive subject. I claimed – no, wait, I pointed it out because it’s factual – that playing less games has helped Liverpool in their title challenge this year. Suddenly people are making stats out of isolated moments and missing the point entirely. So let me explain.

First off, I’ll reiterate, this is a good Liverpool side, and their challenge is no fluke. I’m not saying fringe teams lacking the extra European commitment will break the top four every year. Usually the established teams have the extra funds from playing Champions League football so they can fortify their squads accordingly, thus, keeping a stronghold at the top. But Liverpool has been an emerging force aided by the opening up of spaces above them. When was the last time the reigning champions fell so far away from a title race? That was all the way back when Blackburn defended their crown in the 95/96 season, they finished seventh. Normally the top four alone is a tough nut to crack. Let’s not forget though, that Liverpool are the third highest spenders in Premier League history so they should be there-or-thereabouts every year.

In an earlier blog I mentioned – as it’s been pointed out to try and unravel my own argument – a Chelsea win over PSG would give them a boost in the title run. I stand by that claim, winning is habit forming. To use it against me is an example of people using singular instances to dismiss the whole. At this stage of the season teams are fragile psychologically, one defeat can destroy a run. Indeed, Manuel Pellegrini claimed the Sunderland draw at home was down to the players still thinking about the Liverpool loss. I’m sure if City had turned over Liverpool at Anfield, Sunderland would have faced a side that didn’t feel the fatigue so much, and would have been out for more blood. So yes, in the case of winning helping, either in Europe or a few days earlier in the Premier League, it provides a mental boost. However, over the course of a long season it gets harder to maintain those runs if the squad has played extra matches along the way.

I was also asked to provide evidence showing that when teams playing more games have suffered an impact on their season, and why has a team never challenged for the title before when free of European commitment. That’s pretty simple to answer. Spurs were looking strong 09/10 but failed to make an impact the following year when they were juggling Champions League football. When Liverpool last won the Champions League they were unable to finish in the top four. And pretty much every small squad that gets Europa League football struggles in the following campaign. This year we’ve seen Arsenal start strong, hold top spot for longer than anyone expected, but still fall away when injuries and extra games caught up with them.

To put it in a crude way, if playing extra games had no effect, then a team facing seven matches a week would be at no disadvantage over a team in the title race facing just one. Of course they would. Liverpool have benefitted from having less miles on the clock. If they don’t add significant numbers to the squad over the summer they won’t be challenging for the league next May after playing the extra European games. José Mourinho has even sought permission this week to field a weaker side on Sunday because he’s prioritised the Champions League over the Liverpool clash. There we have explicit proof that playing no games in Europe makes the league easier. It’s a shame that such an exciting, close season, is undermined at the final showdown by José’s stance but it could be a mind-game. Considering how ineffective he’s been with those all season it’d be a long overdue one if it proves to be successful at Anfield.

None of this is designed to undermine Liverpool’s efforts, they have been worthy contenders this year, but there seems to be such a sensitivity toward them at the moment that you can’t even point out valid observations. Every media outlet is in love with them and plastic football fans have been transported back to the Eighties. To say less games hasn’t helped is the same as disputing how great Suarez has been this year. Facts are facts. I look forward to watching them adapt next season with the extra games coming their way.

Four Horses, Final Furlong

Four Horses, Final Furlong

The Premier League has seen an open and exciting title race this season. Made all the better by the absence of Manchester United. That’s not just a dislike for the Red Devils speaking, but with them out of the picture it’s opened up another slot at the top. That gap has been filled emphatically by Liverpool, the rulers of old. This weekend sees the two North West teams involved in the hunt for the title face North London opposition, both of whom appear to have a salvage operation underway.

It has been refreshing to see Liverpool back on the prowl for league honours again. The neutral in me recalls a childhood watching them rule over England in dominant fashion. Back then my City were also rans. I didn’t love them any less but people weren’t queuing up to jump on that particular bandwagon. Elvis, Led Zeppelin and Black Sabbath were my favourite bands but they weren’t on Top of the Pops so, with much regret in hindsight, I donned a Bros t-shirt and accepted popular culture. Children are fickle. That young side of me did admire the Liverpool teams of old. The football Top of the Pops – Match of the Day – would play goals from the Red Men like hits from the charts. They were hard not to notice. That same neutral head would find some comfort in Liverpool winning this year, if it’s not to be City, because it’d mean Steven Gerrard getting a Premier League medal. He’s been a world class player for England (about the only one of his generation) and loyal to his club.

This season Liverpool are being noticed once again. And with good reason. Manchester City started the season in explosive fashion. After a few shaky weeks when playing away they started to overturn teams at will. It seemed conceivable they’d score at least four every week, and if you scored four they might score six. But at the business end of the season it’s the red half of Merseyside that has come on strong. After an anxious finish to Sunderland they face a Spurs side spluttering through uncertainty. A win here will more than likely end Tottenham’s hope for a top four finish – Everton are looking a better bet right now – and could spell the end of Tim Sherwood’s reign. I’m not suggesting he’d be sacked now, but the war kitty won’t be his by the time pre-season comes around.

It’s amusing Brendan Rodgers mentioned the pressure on Spurs after spending heavily when in fact Liverpool have a higher net loss than Tottenham in regard to transfer fees, not just this season, but around £70M since 2010. It appears the Northern Irishman learnt how to play mind games – by talking tripe – from his former mentor Mourinho, who has spent the year doing a good impression of the village idiot. Make no mistake: There is an immense pressure on Liverpool now. History weighs heavy with expectation. So far they are coping. If they defeat Spurs, Chelsea and Manchester City at home they’ll stand an excellent chance of bringing the first Premier League title to Anfield.

Attempting to prevent a Merseyside title win are the two sides that meet Saturday tea time: Arsenal and Manchester City. The Gunners are now the outsiders for the crown. I admire the way Wenger has maintained top four finishes on a tight budget while they paid for the new stadium but they continue to fall short. All his trophies came during the first five hundred games of his tenure. How many more hundreds will he get before the fans demand a different approach? He claims the race is still on – and with his side only six points from Chelsea he has every right – but he’ll have one eye over his shoulder now. It’s almost inconceivable that in a season where they were title race pace setters they could finish in a Europa League spot.

They’d have good company there as the reigning champions, Manchester United, look to the high ground, baffled. The most exciting part of their weekend will be a plane flying over The Theatre of Dreams trailing a banner that will read: The Wrong One – Moyes Out, highlighting just how bad the nightmare has become.

Pellegrini’s men have maths on their side, as every rival manager is happy to point out, but the games in hand are a buffer for mistakes more than certainty for points. It’s likely all the teams in the chase will drop silly points in the remaining games, City just have a way to lessen the impact if they do. Taking the three points at Old Trafford in such an easy fashion will give them a welcome boost, a repeat at Arsenal will set them up nicely. You’d fancy them in home games to Southampton and Sunderland in the coming weeks but they mustn’t overlook anyone now. The early season dazzle has dimmed a little but a new steelier centre is evident. This City team has the backbone to grind out a title.

As for Chelsea: well, I won’t say too much because their manager does that for them. But don’t be fooled by his claims the extra games in Europe will play a factor. Winning becomes habit forming and boosts confidence. A good showing against a tricky PSG side will push them on, not drain them. They currently sit top of the pile and must wear a favourites tag without trying to pretend otherwise.

Wherever this year’s trophy goes it will be a season we can look back on with fond memories, a four horse race to the end. That’s four horses, no little dogs. I’m not sure where the dogs are, I’ll ask a United fan, they seem to have gone there.

We Need Our Christmas Crackers

We Need Our Christmas Crackers

A common remark made after England fail at a major tournament is that the Premier League should adopt the European approach of having a festive break. There have been, and will continue to be, lots of innovations and alterations to the modern game but this is one I’ll never take to. As a fan I love the crowded festive fixture list. I’d hate to see it removed for invalid reasons – let’s face it, one year off wouldn’t prepare the England players any better for a World Cup. Festive football is as seasonal as A Christmas Carol and the Queen’s Speech.

From previous blogs (“The Magic of the Cup”) it’s no secret I’m a bit of a traditionalist. But I’m also a realist, so not living an entirely romanticised version of football events. If lessening the fixture congestion served a purpose that enhanced the overall product then I’d be a fan. The truth is that it won’t, nor will it serve the national team in its efforts. The foreign players that compete in the Premier League seem to cope okay in major tournaments. Those partaking in the African Cup of Nations always appear fresh, or certainly no worse off for the endeavour.

Even if I was to accept – hypothetically speaking now – that the winter period drains players come the end of the season, I’d still rather we kept the set-up as it is. If it’s tiring for the players – apparently a modern professional requires 78 hours between games to make a complete recovery, I’m wondering if these figures have been mixed up with common Christmas hangover periods – it’s more tiring for the fan. I spend Christmas Eve tossing and turning in the hope Santa is bringing me presents. That means I’m up early to check if I have been a good boy (only once in living memory was I deemed bad, that was the year I didn’t get a PlayStation 1 but all my mates did) and in bed late that evening (hopefully) celebrating.

It doesn’t stop there. I rarely sleep due to excitement on Christmas night, too. The prospect of a full Premier League fixture list on Boxing Day is enough to keep me awake. I barely get over that before we head to the normal fixtures that week. All the time the New Year’s games are waiting. If new to football the Christmas period would provide the perfect crash course; for veterans it’s the season to be jolly, for sure.

In what has been a great season for the unpredictable, the games squeezed together at the end of December and the start of January will provide us with a marker of how things are likely to go as the league moves into its second half. Eventually form will be established – good or bad – and determine the fate of the teams. December is the start of that new phase.

The December 21st to 23rd games provide the first examination of how the top could go. Arsenal face Chelsea on Monday the 23rd at the Emirates. The Gunners need a win to prove they are genuine contenders and that they can turnover a top side after two defeats in Manchester, albeit one of those Manchester sides is now a mid-table team. Before that we’ll discover if Manchester City’s away form has steadied when they face a Fulham side starting to show signs of life. At the lower end a nervous Sam Allardyce takes his Hammers to Old Trafford. He’ll tell his players a win is possible, and point to United’s home form as proof, but it’s unthinkable that Moyes will face defeat there again so soon.

The Boxing Day games provide further examination of how genuine each team’s league position is. Everton face a stern test at home to a Sunderland side that has just beaten Chelsea in the League Cup. These are the sort of games a team needs to collect three points from if they are serious about securing European football. The aforementioned West Ham face Arsenal at home, by Boxing Day their predicament could have been worsened, Mr Wenger may well have a belated gift Big Sam doesn’t really want.

The tie of the day sees Liverpool travel to the Etihad. City is scoring for fun there at the moment. During the mauling of Arsenal, one fan in earshot jokingly remarked he was upset if they didn’t score five nowadays. At the time City had “only” managed four but his pains were rewarded with a couple more before the final whistle. Liverpool themselves handed Spurs a defeat that demonstrated they were far from being pretenders this year. It’s a shame we’ve been robbed of watching Aguero and Suarez on the same pitch but there’s enough talent to make this a mouth-watering game. If Liverpool take a point in Manchester it’d show they need to be taken seriously; failing that conceding less than five will do.

December 28th/29th matches will see Man City at home against a Crystal Palace side that, with all due respect, they will feel safe rotating players against. Liverpool face another tough away test at Chelsea. West Ham/West Brom; Hull/Fulham; Cardiff/Sunderland are a trio of ties that pit teams in six pointers in the relegation battle. Everton hosting Southampton gives us insight into two teams fighting it out for a top six spot.

The first game of 2014 sees Man City travel to Swansea and in the last game of the day Man United host Tottenham. In between these games clubs in close proximity to one another face-off – Palace/Norwich and Fulham/West Ham – whilst Arsenal and Liverpool will be expected to win their respective home games against Cardiff and Hull Tigers. The biggest factor may well be the strength in the squads rather than the preferred starting eleven.

At the end of this cycle big teams and strugglers alike will have dropped points. The crazy season may finally have started to settle. The teams then don’t play a league game for ten days. By my calculations that’s a big enough gap to squeeze a 78 hour rest in, especially if you want to skip some cup football.

And they say they need a winter break?